Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-27 3.442895 4.109994 4.853171 5.739778 6.765844 7.913020 9.289635
2025-05-04 2.476235 3.371752 4.485251 5.958463 7.841587 10.151903 13.182495
2025-05-11 1.805434 2.760462 4.066541 5.952276 8.568113 12.025902 16.890595
2025-05-18 1.313285 2.232489 3.602095 5.737657 8.916278 13.391179 20.063384
2025-05-25 0.961524 1.805571 3.167040 5.443305 9.050505 14.416323 22.827547
2025-06-01 0.753969 1.549733 2.927872 5.377827 9.476503 15.866294 26.313346
2025-06-08 0.599385 1.342759 2.719151 5.308909 9.860770 17.262856 29.826675
2025-06-15 0.527451 1.272097 2.731150 5.609651 10.879048 19.747512 35.261941
2025-06-22 0.439592 1.144786 2.609382 5.641156 11.422163 21.489203 39.631955
2025-06-29 0.366093 1.028197 2.483455 5.638239 11.891141 23.134470 43.966542
2025-07-06 0.305097 0.923296 2.359355 5.614233 12.307988 24.713848 48.304989
2025-07-13 0.286833 0.920126 2.455524 6.056007 13.670214 28.106410 56.095953
2025-07-20 0.251664 0.864796 2.427475 6.238976 14.561577 30.754179 62.845266
2025-07-27 0.224181 0.823487 2.425929 6.483097 15.612724 33.809264 70.612982
2025-08-03 0.189016 0.747994 2.323821 6.479590 16.140408 35.900867 76.744818
2025-08-10 0.151119 0.649861 2.140326 6.249388 16.142642 36.946744 80.951288
2025-08-17 0.117787 0.553383 1.937337 5.932363 15.903264 37.469313 84.160745
2025-08-24 0.097898 0.497555 1.837312 5.861865 16.220833 39.168990 89.840638
2025-08-31 0.081349 0.447537 1.742415 5.787561 16.517067 40.843150 95.585107
2025-09-07 0.075862 0.442142 1.788102 6.111966 17.827185 44.824490 106.389278
2025-09-14 0.065348 0.409476 1.735865 6.145945 18.409246 47.234888 114.033422
2025-09-21 0.055777 0.376587 1.674661 6.142801 18.894518 49.464076 121.438650
2025-09-28 0.047334 0.344947 1.609742 6.116916 19.315958 51.578402 128.733823